Crystal Balls and Other Such Nonsense

Well, the crystal balls are dusted off and on the table. All the talking heads are making predictions. According to Bloomberg News, Byron Wien said the US economy will fall into recession in 2008 and stocks will tumble before rallying in the second half. He said the S&P will post a 10% drop.

And how effective is Mr. Wien's fortune telling? According to the same Bloomberg article, he has been totally wrong the past two years. And Wien himself admits his predictions have at least a 50% chance of coming true (or failing, depending upon your perspective).

Actually, flipping a coin is just as effective and takes less time to read.

So much for predictions...